As I mentioned earlier I’ve been working on incorporating the latest data released from the FBI/DOJ UCR report for 2009 into our statistical data that was released in our 2010 mid-year statistical report and some of the results are fairly interesting.
First, while adjusting our comparative data we use to show how the rates for different types of serious police misconduct compares with the crime rates for the general public as compiled by the UCR I noticed an error in the way we calculated the totals for the assault and murder rates for law enforcement officers that was a holdover from our 2009 final report*. Those have been adjusted along with adjustments made to all the stats based on the 2009 UCR data, which shows the following comparison between UCR US crime rates and NPMSRP police misconduct rates:
Second, the US Average Projected Police Misconduct Rate based on 2010 midyear statistical models increased from 970.57 per 100,000 officers to 978.73 per 100,000 due to a reduction of about 6,000 law enforcement officers nationwide from the 2008 sworn LEO employment rate of 712,360 (which our stats were based on) to the 2009 rate of 706,886.
Finally, the state rankings shifted due to fluctuations in statewide LEO employment rates. Previously the rankings went from Oklahoma as the worst with a 2105.26 PMR through to Montana, Vermont, West Virginia, Tennessee, New Hampshire, Oregon, Georgia, Utah, then Alaska as the 10 worst. Now the states rank as follows:
Rank | State | PMR
1. Oklahoma 2038.25
2. West Virginia 1956.27
3. Vermont 1865.67
4. Louisiana 1813.29
5. Montana 1797.75
6. Tennessee 1724..35
7. New Hampshire 1416.77
8. Oregon 1325.60
9. Alaska 1267.83
10. Utah 1253.92
While I would like to revise the 2010 midyear reports in total, which I’m sure would yield more changes, I don’t have the resources to do so at the moment. Hopefully the new data will be incorporated into the 2010 Q3 statistics that should come out next month if I can keep the project going that long.
Feel free to contact us with any questions.
*The error was due to the way we project rates out to one year when what we have is data from less than one year. Basically we simply take the number of reports gathered for a given time frame, divide that number of reports by the number of months in which those reports were gathered, then multiply that by the number of months in a year (12), this gives us a projected annual rate when we don’t have a full 12 months of recorded data.
In 2009 we only gathered 8.5 month’s worth of data, so all rates were projected rates based on a (x/8.5)*12 formula where x is the number of reports (which is why the 2009 report is listed as preliminary). We used a copy of the same spreadsheet from the 2009 report to generate our 2010 mid-year stats and neglected to change the (x/8.5)*12 formula for the murder rate and assault rate fields to the mid-year (x/6)*12 formula, thus making the statistics for those two data sets smaller than they should have been.
Just thought I would explain the error for the curious out there.